Wednesday, August 09, 2006

WNR

First, let me apologize for the departure from the insightful and thoughtful stories that Claire does. Since I'm currently active duty military, and don't want to post anything controversial, here is a stock we bought yesterday (and again today) and why. We may sell it anytime, however. It's a company called Western Refining (WNR).

Here is what I use to evaluate a stock (CANSLIM from Investors Business Daily--IBD--IBD Homepage; however, I invert the order to remember the importance of only trying to buying when the market is favorable):

[ ]M=Markets="Confirmed Rally"; Is Democracy increasing or decreasing today, this week? & "The change in the discount rate is a valuable indicator to watch as a confirmation of market moves" --watch EVERY WEEK, EVEN EVERY DAY for 4 distribution days in a market go to at least 25% cash. Watch for high volume w/o increases, and go more and more and stay more and more in cash as market has more distribution days. Initial market decline may be on light volume. If in doubt, market leading stocks should send signals to rest of the markets.

[ ]I=A/D Grade & Money Flow=Institutional Sponsors=Look for stocks bought and being bought--however, watch for everyone owning, may start selling.

[ ]L=Leader or Laggard= A) Recognized Base or Pattern; & B) usually 70 < RS Grade < 90; & C) Among Top Stocks of a Strong (non-C) Industry Group =Want Leaders that are not overbought--may sell-off big

[ ]S=Supply & Demand ((Big Splash Up best w/ Small Floats (although big caps have more watchers), Usually Smaller Caps))=companies decreasing debt & buying back stock

[ ]N=New: New Highs; (cool or new) Listing (IPO) or PRODUCT, New MANAGEMENT (esp after a bad run)

[ ]C&A=Current & Annual Earnings: EPS Grades, inc 1) PE under 35; and, 2) 99 EPS? EPS generally higher than RS

Market (M):
- in a downtrend
? no comment on democracy increasing or decreasing (not from IBD, instead Forbes)
+ the discount rate has gone from being raised to yesterday not

I:
+ IBD Industry Group: A+
+ IBD Accumulation: A+

L:
+ IBD Cup w/ Handle pattern
? IBD RS almost too high at 96 (max is 99)
+ #1 of 28 in it's industry

S:
+ Today it had 180% of normal volume (incredible volume for the last 3 trading days)

N:
+ It's at a high
+ 2006 IPO
+ Refines crude oil and markets refined products ("hot")

C/A:
+ IBD EPS: 99
+ EPS of 99 higher than RS of 96
? P/E (new)

3 comments:

Pilot Mom said...

May I be the first to say Welcome to the active world of blogging! Nice of you to post! We love you!

Unknown said...

Quick Claire...get the aspirin! And a chair and a...dictionary or something...
Holy COW.
What in the wide world of finance are you saying...
Oh wait. I get it! LOL
You're speaking in tongues.
BWHAHAHAHA
I kill myself.
Naw, just picking on ya Bob.
Course...you could be a saweetie and do some lay interpretation for us, couldn't ya?
♥Pam

Bob and Claire said...

BTW, we sold this. Bob